x
Your preference has been saved. Remove your saved preference.
You must supply both a username and a password to login.
You must supply a username, password and token to login.
Sign on
Passport secured login icon  
 
Wealth Management
Asset Management
Asset Servicing
Insights & Research
About Northern Trust
Search go
Click to close drop down menu.
 
Click to close drop down menu.
Financial Intermediary
Learn about asset management solutions designed for Retirement Plan Advisors, TAMPs/Outsourcing Providers, Subadvisory Program Sponsors, RIAs/Financial Advisors and Trust Institutions.
Institutional
Learn about asset management solutions including: global index management, active equity and fixed income, target retirement date funds, and manager of manager programs.
Individual
Get answers to your investment challenges with asset management capabilities including alternatives, exchange traded funds, fixed income, mutual funds and tax-advantaged equity.
Click to close drop down menu.
 
Northern Trust Logo
 

Weekly Economic Commentary

 
.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
.
 

Consumer Confidence Index: Near Recession Low in October

October 25, 2011

Download PDF version

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped 6.6 points to 39.8 in October. This reading is approaching the recession low of 25.3 recorded in February 2009. The Present Situation Index fell 7.0 points to 26.3, while the Expectations Index dropped to 48.7 from 55.1 in September. Essentially, the latest consumer confidence numbers are raising a red flag in an already weak economic environment.

DEC 10.25 1The outlook of consumers has taken a big hit in the past six months (see Chart 2), with shaky financial markets, a weak housing market, and worrisome labor market playing an important role.

DEC 10.25 2Survey respondents have become increasingly pessimistic about labor market conditions. The number of respondents indicating “jobs are hard to get” increased to 49.4% from 47.1% in September and the number indicating that “jobs are plentiful” declined to 3.4% from 5.6% in October. The net of these two indexes has a positive correlation with unemployment rate and it held nearly steady in October (43.7 vs. 43.8 in September). The implication is that an unchanged unemployment rate of 9.1% in October is entirely possible.

DEC 10.25 3August 2011 Home Prices: Small but Noteworthy Improvement

The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller Price Index held steady in August compared with July. On a year-to-year basis, the index fell 3.8%, the smallest decline since February 2011. The FHFA House Price Index of August dropped 4.0% from a year ago, the smallest reduction since December 2010. The decelerating trend of both home price indexes suggests that home prices are stabilizing, albeit gradually in small magnitudes. However, the large supply of foreclosed property presents a challenge and bodes poorly for a rapid improvement of home prices.DEC 10.25 4a

.
The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of The Northern Trust Company. The Northern Trust Company does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions.
.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
.