Your preference has been saved. Remove your saved preference.
You must supply both a username and a password to login.
You must supply a username, password and token to login.
Sign on
Passport secured login icon  
Wealth Management
Asset Management
Asset Servicing
Insights & Research
About Northern Trust
Search go
Click to close drop down menu.
Click to close drop down menu.
Financial Intermediary
Learn about asset management solutions designed for Retirement Plan Advisors, TAMPs/Outsourcing Providers, Subadvisory Program Sponsors, RIAs/Financial Advisors and Trust Institutions.
Learn about asset management solutions including: global index management, active equity and fixed income, target retirement date funds, and manager of manager programs.
Get answers to your investment challenges with asset management capabilities including alternatives, exchange traded funds, fixed income, mutual funds and tax-advantaged equity.
Click to close drop down menu.
Northern Trust Logo

Weekly Economic Commentary


Kasriel’s Parting Thoughts – Why Should Not Stocks Have Done Well? or Business, With Enemies Like This, Who Needs Friends?

April 4, 2012

Download PDF Version

Chart 1 - 04 04 2012Paul L. Kasriel, post-April 30 email contact: econtrarian@gmail.com

Oil and Industrial Metal Prices – Temporarily Disconnected
by Asha Bangalore

Brent crude oil is trading around $122 and change today, down from a peak of $128.31 on March 9. The rapid run-up in oil prices since late-January has made a dent in household budgets and keeps us wondering if it is permanent. The reasons for the jump in oil prices in recent months is largely a supply story – the Iran nuclear controversy raising concerns about future oil supply and actual supply bottlenecks in several spots of the world. The support to this thesis is visible in the recent behavior of industrial metal prices. As shown in Chart 2, the industrial metals price index has failed to keep pace with oil prices much as the two closely tracked each other in 2010 (see Chart 2). The absence of a sharp increase in non-energy commodity prices implies that markets are expecting slower growth of the global economy in the months ahead than suggested by higher energy prices and confirms that Fed’s assessment that the recent increase in oil prices is a temporary event.

Chart 2 - 04 04 2012










The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of The Northern Trust Company. The Northern Trust Company does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions.