July 2007
Issue Features
- The Evolving Plan Structure Landscape
- Handing Over the Investment Reins
- Opportunities in the Eurozone
- Inside Target Date Funds
Column: Voices
Departments
Department: Global Megatrends
Today, and over the foreseeable future, a series of events — call them global megatrends — will have a profound impact on the world economy. Each issue of Point of View will share insight into these trends and how the institutional investment community is preparing to address them.
The Growth of Derivatives Markets
As investment strategies become more sophisticated, the need to create new investment opportunities and hedge potential risks becomes greater. This need has been driving the tremendous growth of the derivatives markets. Today, derivatives — which are traded on an exchange or in the OTC markets in the form of forwards and futures, swaps and options — are important components of a fluid and efficiently functioning global securities market. Yet many investors still misunderstand these securities.
A derivative is simply an asset whose value is “derived” from the value of some other asset. The size of the derivatives market is most commonly measured in terms of notional value, which is defined as the principal amount used to calculate payments on contracts. Investors’ increasing comfort level with derivatives will continue to impact the size, scope and opportunities that exist with these very important markets.
Growing at a 20%-plus Annual Rate
The global derivatives markets grew at a 21.3% annual rate from June 1998 to December 2006. The notional value of global derivatives grew to US$415 trillion as of Dec. 31, 2006, a 39% increase from a year earlier.
Derivative Vehicles and Their Uses
Derivatives are most commonly used in hedging strategies or to generate additional portfolio returns.
Interest Rate Contracts
Primary Uses:
- Hedge interest rate risk
- Improve cost of funding
Credit Default Swaps
Primary Uses:
- Reduce the level of credit risk within a portfolio
- Capture premium by selling credit protection
Foreign Exchange Contracts
Primary Uses:
- Offset expected foreign currency payment
- Hedge currency risk within global portfolios
Equity-linked Contracts
Primary Uses:
- Portfolio hedging
- Directional position on single stock or index
- Creating synthetic equity positions
Commodity Contracts
Primary Uses:
- Manufacturers hedging future commodity deliveries
- Companies hedging future commodity purchases
- Directional position on commodity markets
Interest Rate Contracts Dominate Derivatives Landscape
No other category of derivative comes close to interest rate contracts in terms of notional value outstanding. These instruments accounted for 69%, or $292 trillion, of total OTC derivatives notional value at the end of 2006. Foreign exchange contracts follow as a distant second at 10%, or $40.1 trillion.
Continued Growth in Derivatives Markets
Through December 2006, most derivative types have experienced double-digit annual growth rates in the amount of notional value outstanding. While interest rate swaps dominate the market in terms of volume, credit default swaps have experienced tremendous growth over the past few years.
*Compound annual growth rate is calculated from June 1998 through June 2006, with the exception of credit default swaps, which are calculated from December 2004, the earliest date that data was available.
Source: Bank for International Settlements, Northern Trust
© 2013 Northern Trust Corporation
northerntrust.com
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. One cannot invest directly in an index. Index performance is based upon information provided by the index providers. There are risks involved with investing, including possible loss of principal. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives of any fund or strategy will be met. Risk controls and asset allocation models do not promise any level of performance or guarantee against loss of principal.
This material is directed to eligible counterparties and professional clients only and should not be relied upon by retail investors. For Asia Pacific markets, it is directed to institutional investors, expert investors and professional investors only and should not be relied upon by retail investors. This information is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation for any investment strategy or product described herein. This information is not intended as investment advice and does not take into account an investor’s individual circumstances. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time without notice. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and interpretation are not guaranteed.
Asset management at Northern Trust comprises Northern Trust Investments, Inc., Northern Trust Global Investments Limited, Northern Trust Global Investments Japan, K.K., the investment adviser division of The Northern Trust Company and Northern Trust Company of Connecticut and its subsidiaries to offer investment products and services to personal and institutional markets. Northern Trust Global Investments Japan, K.K. is regulated by the Japan Financial Services Agency. The Northern Trust Company has a branch in China mainly regulated by the China Banking Regulatory Commission, People’s Bank of China and State Administration of Foreign Exchange. The Northern Trust Company of Hong Kong Limited is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. In Singapore, Northern Trust Global Investments Limited (NTGIL), Northern Trust Investment, Inc. and Northern Trust Company of Connecticut, Inc. are exempt from the requirement to hold a Financial Adviser’s Licence under the Financial Advisers Act and a Capital Markets Services Licence under the Securities and Futures Act with respect to the provision of financial services. In Australia, NTGIL is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect to the provision of financial services. NTGIL is regulated by the FSA under U.K. laws, which differ from Australian Laws.