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Wealth Management Portfolio Research

The Free Meals of Investing

Most investment decisions are risk-return trade-offs, not free meals.

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October 8, 2025

By Peter Mladina, Executive Director of Portfolio Research, Wealth Management

Investing has many sayings. Value investors say “buy low, sell high.” Long-term investors say “time in the market beats timing the market.” Prudent investors say “don’t put all your eggs in one basket,” which is a reminder to diversify investments to reduce risk.

It is often said that “diversification is the only free lunch in investing.” A free lunch serves up some benefit without sacrificing return or increasing risk. Most investment decisions are risk-return trade-offs, so they are not free. Diversification is a free lunch because it reduces risk without giving up expected return. But it is not the only free meal in investing.

Passive (index) investing is a free breakfast. The asset-weighted average fees for active U.S. large cap mutual funds and separately managed accounts (SMAs) are 0.54% and 0.61%, respectively. In comparison, the asset-weighted average fees for passive U.S. large cap funds (including exchange-traded funds) and SMAs are 0.06% and 0.10%, respectively.1 Do the higher fees of active management come with a reliable risk-adjusted excess return (alpha)? The evidence says no. In our research article “Manager Performance and Persistence,” we evaluated the performance of all U.S. stock funds going back to 1973 and found no evidence of true (non-random) alpha net of fees. Exhibit 1 shows the average alpha from that study is -1.3% and the percentage of top-performing funds that produced statistically significant alpha (2.9% of funds) is slightly less than the percentage we would expect to find by random chance (3.0% of funds).2

Exhibit 1 – Alpha Prevalence

Average AlphaActual % Sig. AlphaRandom & Sig. Alpha
-1.3%2.9%3.0%

Additionally, active management usually comes with higher turnover, which typically results in higher taxes for taxable investors. Passive investing offers higher returns net of fees and taxes, without increasing risk—a free meal.

As previously noted, diversification is the free lunch. Correlation measures the strength and direction of how two assets co-move. A portfolio’s volatility risk (standard deviation) is reduced when combining assets and asset classes that are imperfectly correlated. The resulting portfolio’s standard deviation is less than the weighted average standard deviation of its underlying assets.

In our research article “Focused Equity Portfolios are Under-Diversified,” we formed stock portfolios of different sizes from S&P 500 constituent stocks and calculated their standard deviations. Exhibit 2 shows that larger portfolio sizes (more stocks) have lower risk, and by extension, better risk-adjusted returns (efficiency).3 This works when forming portfolios from underlying securities or from broad asset classes. Diversification reduces total portfolio risk without giving up expected return—a free meal.

Exhibit 2 – Diversification Benefits

Portfolio Size (Number of Stocks)Standard DeviationEfficiency
131.4%0.43
1019.3%0.63
3017.9%0.67
S&P 50014.6%0.70

Investors who fund liabilities or lifetime goals (e.g., consumption, gifts, etc.) have a free dinner: asset-liability matching. They can fully to partially secure a liability (goal) with little to no risk by constructing a liability hedge with their bond allocation. By employing high-grade bonds and aligning the duration of the bond allocation with the duration of the liability, the investor significantly reduces liability-relative risk (tracking error to the liability). Duration matching mitigates interest rate risk while high-grade bonds minimize default risk—the two key risks that can undermine liability funding. Tracking error manifests through time into dispersion in future funding outcomes (i.e., future surplus/shortfall), which is the risk that really matters to investors with liabilities or goals.

Exhibit 3 is an update to our research, “A Note on Securing High-Priority Goals”, that shows an example of asset-liability matching when funding a series of 10-year level annuities with either cash or a liability hedge.4 Cash (Treasury bills) is commonly viewed as the safe asset due to its minimal volatility. However, its liability-relative risk is significant due to a duration mismatch relative to the liability. The graph shows significant dispersion in funding outcomes when using cash to fund the series of annuities. In contrast, the portfolio of high-grade, duration-matched bonds shows minimal dispersion in funding outcomes through time. Asset-liability matching reduces liability-relative funding risk without giving up expected return—a free meal.

Exhibit 3 – Asset-Liability Matching

Most investment decisions are risk-return trade-offs, not free meals. However, passive investing, robust diversification and asset-liability matching are free meals because they offer either higher net returns or reduced risk without giving up anything. There are potentially other free meals, but most of these deal with tax efficiency and planning. For example, utilizing tax-favored accounts and asset location (i.e., locating tax-inefficient assets in tax-favored accounts), tax-loss harvesting (in some circumstances), and wealth transfer strategies (though these deal with reducing estate/gift tax, not investment tax per se) are potentially free meals because they reduce the overall tax burden, resulting in increased after-tax return with the same amount of risk. Investors should eat their free meals.

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Peter Mladina

Executive Director of Portfolio Research, Wealth Management

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  1. Sources: Morningstar and Northern Trust Research.
  2. Performance attribution uses the Fama-French three-factor model. Confidence test is based on a bootstrap distribution of alpha t-statistics.
  3. Efficiency is the arithmetic mean return divided by the standard deviation.
  4. For 267 nominal 10-year annuities, the chart shows surplus/shortfall, which is the remaining portfolio value at the end of the annuity period divided by the present value of the annuity at the beginning of the period. The dollar present value is the discounted value of the 10 annuity payments using the respective benchmark yield at the onset of the distribution period (1993 – 2015). The remaining portfolio value (2003 – 2025) is the surplus or shortfall after funding annual goals with the portfolio sequentially realizing annual benchmark portfolio returns for each of the 10 years in the distribution period. The index of high-grade and average duration aligned bonds is a Muni 1–10-year (Duration Matched) portfolio that is a time-varying blend of Bloomberg Municipal Indices (1–2 year, 2–4 year, 4–6 year, 6–8 year and 8–12 year). Cash is the Bloomberg 1–3 Month Short Treasury Index. Data are monthly values since earliest common index inception of July 1993 and through August 2025.

Disclosures

© 2025 Northern Trust Corporation. Head Office: 50 South La Salle Street, Chicago, Illinois 60603 U.S.A. Incorporated with limited liability in the U.S.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational and educational purposes only. The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and are not meant to be taken as investment advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product or strategy and does not take your financial situation, investment objective or risk tolerance into consideration. Performance examples are hypothetical and for illustration purposes only and actual results may be lower or higher than a portfolio that may be more or less diversified and/or managed in a different manner. In performing its services, Northern Trust will take into account other relevant facts and circumstances such that positions and transactions for any particular client account may differ with the investments described herein. Northern Trust provides fiduciary and investment management services to various types of accounts, including but not limited to, separately managed accounts, registered and unregistered funds. The investment advice given to one client account may differ from the investment advice given to another client account. Northern Trust and its affiliates may have positions in, and may effect transactions in, the markets, contracts and related investments described herein, which positions and transactions may be in addition to, or different from, those taken in connection with the investments described herein. All information discussed herein is current only as of the date of publication and is subject to change at any time without notice. This material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness and interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Readers, including professionals, should under no circumstances rely upon this information as a substitute for their own research or for obtaining specific legal, accounting or tax advice from their own counsel.

All investments involve risk and can lose value. The market value and income from investments may fluctuate in amounts greater than the market. Forecasts may not be realized due to a multitude of factors, including but not limited to, changes in economic conditions, corporate profitability, geopolitical conditions or inflation.

LEGAL, INVESTMENT AND TAX NOTICE. This information is not intended to be and should not be treated as legal, investment, accounting or tax advice.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Periods greater than one year are annualized except where indicated. Returns of the indexes also do not typically reflect the deduction of investment management fees, trading costs or other expenses. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Indexes are the property of their respective owners, all rights reserved.

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