Hi, I’m Ryan Boyle, Chief U.S. Economist for Northern Trust. 

One of the lessons I’ve reinforced with my children is to think critically and be careful about trusting what we see and read online. The potential for creating unreliable content is a risk of living in the age of artificial intelligence, or AI.  I believe AI will bring plenty of benefits, too, and we will all be challenged to make the most of the technology.

For many, the public debut of ChatGPT in late 2022 was a light bulb moment. I can talk to the internet, and it can talk back, in plain language or even in code. Think of the possibilities! And with that, an investment boom took hold. Technology stocks have led the market forward; data center construction is so widespread that we have been worried about the ability to produce enough electricity for them. AI models have proliferated, and new platforms have emerged.

Now, we’re in a critical moment of adoption. AI is appearing in ways that augment existing workers, like summarizing research, drafting meeting notes, and automating routine tasks. As capabilities grow and workers see the potential, more use cases for AI will be identified. We have entered a transition phase from early adoption to more complete automation. The path will be uneven, but AI’s role in our work will only grow.

The technology isn’t perfect, still sometimes caught guessing or hallucinating, but improvements are rapid and ongoing. The AI we’re using today is the worst AI we will ever use.  Companies are growing more comfortable as controls around AI have matured; models can be deployed privately without risk of leaking proprietary information.  Firms that aren’t using AI now are falling behind.

As the use of AI deepens, some jobs will be at risk.  The tension between man and machine has been persistent ever since the Industrial Revolution. The steam engine replaced many manual laborers; cars replaced horses and their drivers. Electronic communications have reduced our use of paper mail.

AI is bringing this conflict to new territory. Professional roles that require education and independent thought were long considered safe from automation. Now, competition from computers is on the rise. Workers will be challenged to adapt their skills and their activities to an environment where more routine tasks are done for them.

All past technology transitions have forged workers who were more capable. As developed markets face aging demographics and reduced immigration, we will need to get as much output as possible from every worker.

I can assure you that you’re watching a real recording of me in the flesh, speaking my own words, recorded and edited by our multimedia team. But AI will enhance what all of us do, and that’s no hallucination.