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Northern Trust Quantitative Strategies

Growth is expensive. Innovation doesn't have to be.

Investors often assume that buying innovative companies means paying premium prices for familiar growth stocks. It is an understandable shortcut, but potentially an expensive one.

Traditional growth strategies favor companies already showing rapid sales or earnings gains. Innovation strategies look earlier, seeking underappreciated R&D, technology and organizational capabilities that can drive future earnings before stock prices fully reflect them.

The takeaway: With the right tools, innovation can be a measurable firm characteristic. When measured correctly and implemented carefully with appropriate risk controls, it can provide a differentiated source of long-term equity alpha.

What Does Innovation Look like?

Innovation takes many forms. Some firms innovate through formal research and intellectual property. Others innovate through digital transformation, operational excellence, business-model change or organizational capability. Exhibit 1 shows select examples.

 

EXHIBIT 1: A WIDE RANGE OF INNOVATION

 

The Price of Growth vs. Innovation

Identifying innovative companies early can help investors avoid paying a growth premium later. The MSCI World Growth Index traded at 35 times earnings and 8.5 times book equity as of the end of 2025, compared with 24 times earnings and four times book equity for the MSCI World Index.

Our research shows that strong innovators don’t need to be today’s expensive growth companies. Roche, Schneider Electric, Assa Abloy and Baker Hughes all ranked near the top of the MSCI World Index universe on innovation score (Exhibit 2). Baker Hughes offers the starkest example: an innovation score at the 89th percentile (100% the most innovative) and a growth score at only the 12th (100% the highest growth). This suggests an opportunity for alpha by buying innovation early before the market recognizes the fruits of that innovation later.

EXHIBIT 2: INNOVATION IS NOT THE SAME AS GROWTH

 

Measure What Accounting and Markets Can Miss

The reason the market tends to under-appreciate innovation is because traditional accounting and investment approaches can understate it. Accounting practices often expense research and development (R&D), software, data, brand and organizational knowledge immediately, depressing current earnings even when they strengthen future earnings power.

Investors can close that gap by seeking innovation across four complementary signals:

  • R&D: Reported R&D expenditure is not a complete measure of innovation. Some companies innovate through software adoption, process improvements, customer experience, supply-chain design or business-model evolution.
  • Patents: Patent quality, originality, breadth and citation reach can help distinguish genuinely valuable innovation from routine patent activity.
  • Digital innovation: Digital adoption can reshape business processes, improve efficiency, enhance customer engagement, create data advantages and enable scalable growth. Traditional financial statements often do not capture this well. AI-powered natural language analysis of company filings can identify evidence of technology adoption and digital transformation.
  • Innovation culture: A culture favorable to innovation is a critical intangible asset that is largely invisible in financial statements. AI-powered research of publicly available employee feedback, controlled for inherent biases, may provide insight on whether a company’s culture is innovative or stagnant.

A note of caution: A common criticism of innovation investing is that it’s a disguised bet on technology stocks, U.S. equities or highly valued growth companies. To manage these risks, investors should control for over-concentration in sectors, regions and market capitalization, along with the higher risks of investing in firms valued on long-term future earnings growth.

 

EXHIBIT 3: THE SOURCE OF INNOVATION DEPENDS ON THE COMPANY

 

From Hidden Innovation to Future Profitability

Measurement only matters if it identifies an economically meaningful outcome. In an analysis covering January 1996 through December 2025, companies identified as innovative had a positive coefficient for future profitability growth while companies identified as growth had a negative coefficient, both with high statistical significance (Exhibit 4).

The result supports a provocative conclusion: Markets may be good at pricing current growth but less effective at valuing the intangible capabilities that produce future growth.

 

EXHIBIT 4: INNOVATION, NOT GROWTH, POINTS TO FUTURE PROFITABILITY

 

Playbook: Uncovering Future Growth

To be clear, we are not suggesting that investors abandon growth. But rather they should stop treating growth as a sufficient proxy for innovation. We have highlighted some ways to do so:

  • Search beyond conventional growth metrics. Look for potentially hidden innovation characteristics across R&D, patents, digital adoption and organizational culture.
  • Distinguish innovation from exposure. Control for unintended sector, regional, market-capitalization and market-sensitivity bets.
  • Test the economic payoff. Assess whether the combined innovation signal predicts improving future profitability.

Growth may be expensive because the market already recognizes it. Innovation can be different precisely because its economic value remains harder to observe. The opportunity is not simply to buy today’s fastest-growing companies. It is to identify the companies building tomorrow’s earnings power before the market gives them full credit.

How AI-Based Models Are Driving Alpha Generation

Alpha is the additional return a portfolio or strategy provides beyond what would be expected for the amount of risk it takes.

Barra GEMLT Growth model computes an asset's sensitivities to industry groups, market characteristics and fundamental data. This includes to the growth factor that is based on earnings and sales growth characteristics, among others.

Beta: A beta investment means a portfolio or investment has the same risk as the market, as represented by a chosen market index.

Cap-weighted index is an index in which each constituent is weighted based on its market capitalization. This approach gives larger companies a greater influence on index performance than smaller ones.

Correlations: Correlation is the extent of which two securities move with each other, where highly correlated securities have similar return patterns. Low correlation between securities often contributes to diversification, a way to lower portfolio risk.

Intangible asset is a nonphysical asset, such as software, data, intellectual property, brand value or organizational knowledge, that may contribute to a company’s long-term earnings power.

Market capitalization is a company's market value, calculated by multiplying the company's share price by the number of shares outstanding.

MSCI World IMI Index captures large-, mid- and small-cap representation across developed markets countries.

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MSCI World Growth Index captures large- and mid-cap securities exhibiting overall growth style characteristics across developed market countries.

Return on invested capital is after-tax profitability of capital invested by a company’s shareholders and debt holders.

Risk-adjusted return is an investment return evaluated in relation to the amount of risk taken to achieve it.

T-stat is a statistical measure that helps assess whether a relationship shown in a regression analysis is likely to be meaningful rather than the result of chance. For large, normally distributed data, a T-stat greater than 2 (or less than -2) suggests statistical significance.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) refers to computational systems designed to perform tasks that typically require human intelligence, such as pattern recognition, decision-making, and prediction. In investment management, AI may be used to support portfolio construction, risk assessment, and trading strategies.

Machine Learning (ML) is a subset of AI that enables systems to identify patterns based on data inputs without being explicitly programmed. ML models may be used in stock selection to identify investment opportunities based on historical and real-time data.

Natural Language Processing (NLP) is a field of AI focused on the interpretation and generation of human language by machines. In financial contexts, NLP may be applied to analyze textual data such as earnings reports to inform investment decisions.  

Large Language Models (LLMs) are advanced NLP systems trained on extensive datasets to understand and generate human-like text. In investment management, LLMs may assist in synthesizing qualitative information or generating insights, but do not independently make investment decisions.

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