Hi, I’m Ryan Boyle, Chief U.S. Economist of Northern Trust.

Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it. And I’m sorry to say, we can now view the 1990s as history. Then, as now, technology was all the rage; then, as now, there were suggestions that hype was in excess of reality.  Are today’s conditions comparable to the 1990s? And what lessons can we take from that experience?

The Dot Com boom of the 1990s is sometimes recalled dismissively because of its excesses. Unprofitable, unsustainable firms found that investor demand for their stocks was insatiable, only because they were internet companies. Valuations were not justifiable. In hindsight, the stock market correction was inevitable.

But there was more to the boom than just a stock bubble. Real investments were made in hardware, systems, and training. A new network of fiber optic cables was built, that’s still in use today. Schools expanded their computer labs, while home internet connections got faster and cheaper. While the subsequent economic slowdown was painful, with the dot-com era left behind a more capable and productive economy.

Today, the enthusiasm centers on artificial intelligence, or AI. Equity market returns have been led by the companies building AI models, as well as the servers and data centers that run the models.

While these stocks have outperformed, they are not benefiting from the kind of  speculative mania seen in the 1990s. Most major AI firms have well-established core businesses, and they are collecting real revenues.

I feel the biggest difference today in the attitude around the rally. The 1990s were a time of optimism: jobs were plentiful, especially for anyone with any technology skills. Today, we worry about AI reducing the workforce, just as it adds to demands on the power grid. The promised upsides of AI could come in the form of greater personal productivity and corporate profits…but the payoff feels uncertain, especially to those whose jobs may be at risk.

One lesson of the 1990s is the folly of attempting to time the market. Alan Greenspan famously summarized a mood of “irrational exuberance” in 1996 – and markets kept rising for more than three years thereafter. A prudent investor will always be mindful of investment risks and prepared for any outcome.

The 1990s also reinforced that first movers aren’t always winners in the long run. The hardware and telecom firms from that rally faced the worst of the crash; some of today’s well-known technology names were not yet formed 1990s. The future leaders of the AI market may not exist today.

I was young and inexperienced in the 1990s. I thought I was entering an adult world with limitless potential. That optimism in the face of rapid change has served me well. Today, I can’t predict how AI will change our lives, nor how long the rally will last. I will hold out hope that, like the 1990s, we will end the cycle better off.