By Ryan Boyle

I was a listener in the 1990s “shock jock” era of radio hosts, who pushed the boundaries of polite society with their interviews and antics.  That experience left me less likely to be surprised by things I hear on the radio.  But while in a rental car on a recent visit to southern California, I heard something slightly shocking: a public service announcement read by the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security, encouraging anyone who was in the country illegally to depart voluntarily.

Immigration policy was a central issue in the 2024 U.S. election.  Worries about lax border enforcement motivated some voters to opt for a change in leadership.  And in this respect, the change of administrations has had tangible outcomes.

Reform was underway in advance of the election: the surge of migrants peaked in 2023.  After reform efforts stalled in Congress, President Biden modified asylum eligibility and negotiated with Mexico to stem the flow of newcomers.  Crossings fell further immediately following President Trump’s election.  More stringent enforcement was among Trump’s first-day executive orders.  Between strong policing and strong messaging from Washington, border encounters are now holding near record lows.

Fortifying the border was only a first step.  We are now witnessing a greater push into deportation.  In the past, removals were routine for temporary residents convicted of crimes or who were found to have overstayed their visas.  The Trump administration is making a priority of apprehending and removing newcomers, with law enforcement officers from all federal agencies and local law enforcement seconded to support arrests. In the first 100 days after the inauguration, the Department of Homeland Security tallied over 135,000 removals.

And the scope of potential removal targets is growing.  The surge of 2023 was driven primarily by migrants fleeing failed states in Central and South America, seeking to stay in the U.S. for fear that they may not survive a return to their birth nations.  The U.S. had a practice of offering temporary protected status to refugees caught in the crossfire of past global conflicts.  However, the asylum system was quickly overwhelmed by the most recent volume of migrants. 

Under the old policies, asylum seekers would have faced years of “twilight” status, awaiting their hearings.  That timeline has been advanced.  The Trump administration has rescinded temporary protections for migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela, and those emigrees may now face immediate removal.

The U.S. has long been a nation of immigrants, with about 15% of its current population being foreign-born.  A more balanced approach to newcomers would crack down on illegal immigration while supporting legal pathways into the country.  Visa issuance through March 2025 has held steady at levels seen in recent years; tourist arrivals and student visa issuance will be points to watch in the months ahead.  However, broader reform efforts to facilitate a simpler immigration system have not been taken up by Congress or advocated by the President.

In the near term, we are watching labor trends in sectors with particularly high reliance on immigrant labor.  Agriculture, healthcare, construction and hospitality are all common occupations for temporary workers and points of entry into the labor market for new permanent residents.  Job openings in these sectors remain elevated.  Automation and artificial intelligence enhancements will be explored in these sectors, but many tasks will still require human hands.  In the construction sector, housing is undersupplied, while the trade agenda has a goal of supporting re-shoring, which will necessitate new plants.  A steady supply of labor will be needed: a lack of immigrants may bring about a new cycle of shortages and wage inflation for entry-level roles.

Immigrants are a component of the U.S. formula for success.  They keep the nation young and productive, outperforming other developed markets.  A lenient policy proved unpopular, and now a strict approach will be put to the test.  I expect more shocks are in store.