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Weekly Economic Commentary | January 16, 2026

The New North Atlantic Calculus

Aspirations for Greenland will meet a cold reality.

 

 

By Vaibhav Tandon

Greenland has reemerged as a center of geopolitical attention.  Its location midway between Washington and Moscow, combined with its position along maritime routes linking the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans, has long made it a focal point for trade.  The brisk melting of ice is opening the possibility of substantially shorter Asia-Europe shipping routes compared with the Suez Canal.

For the United States, Greenland’s role is not merely commercial, but also strategic.  Much like Venezuela, Washington views this Arctic gateway as essential to countering Russian and Chinese influence in the region.

Greenland’s potential is immense, but its challenges are even larger.

Greenland’s resource base further heightens its appeal.  Beneath the thick ice that covers 80% of the island lie sizable deposits of resources critical to modern technologies.  The island ranks eighth in the world for rare earth elements, with an estimated 1.5 million tons, including two of the globe’s largest known deposits.  

China, Greenland’s second largest trading partner after Denmark, has taken a keen interest in these opportunities.  Yet its efforts to gain a foothold have repeatedly stalled.  A rare‑earth project backed by Chinese investors collapsed after Greenland imposed a ban on uranium mining.  U.S. pressure blocked Chinese bids to construct airports and repurpose an abandoned Danish naval base into a research station.

 

chart-1-1999-vs-2005

 

Despite this interest, the promise of Greenland’s mineral wealth remains largely unrealized.  Since World War II, only nine mine sites have ever been active.  Today, just two operate, and neither produces rare earths. Environmental restrictions and harsh weather conditions remain key roadblocks, with much of the island’s resources locked under thick ice for much of the year.   Infrastructure is sparse: only 93 miles of road stretch across a landmass roughly three times the size of Texas. 

Transforming Greenland into a resource hub will require massive investment and time.  For now, the island stands as a reminder that ambition alone cannot melt the ice of reality.

 

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